The US Shale Rig Count is Not Falling, Data Show | Hart Energy

The net change in the U.S. horizontal rig count is seven rigs—1% —fewer than at year-end 2024, a Hart Energy analysis shows. Instead, the sub-$70 oil price has displaced rigs targeting non-shale targets.

A Hart Energy analysis of Enverus data produced the same results: A net change of seven fewer rigs—or 1%—in the first half of 2025. (Source: Shutterstock)

While popular news reports are of weekly 2025 declines in the U.S. Lower 48 rig count, a Hart Energy analysis shows virtually no change from year-end 2024.

The total Lower 48 count was 492 six months ago; on June 26, it was 485, according to J.P. Morgan Securities analyst Arun Jayaram’s newest weekly shale land-rig analysis.

Among them, U.S. operators have transferred roughly two dozen oil-focused rigs to gas-focused acreage, while the 12-month gas strip is $4 and oil is sub-$70, the data show.

Jayaram cited Enverus data for horizontal drilling only, which would be rigs targeting onshore U.S. shale formations.

A Hart Energy analysis of Enverus data produced the same results: A net change of seven fewer rigs—or 1%—in the first half of 2025.

Other media news reports are citing the total U.S. rig count, which includes offshore, vertical, directional and other rigs. Among these, Enverus’ count of all U.S. rigs at work is unchanged at about 573 compared to year-end 2024’s 577 rigs, a Hart Energy analysis shows.

Instead, that count rose in the first quarter to 646 in a “Trump bump” and “drill, baby, drill” messaging. It immediately plummeted to 573 when President Trump announced in early April nearly worldwide tariffs, resulting in global recession fears, and OPEC began dumping oil into the market.

The prompt-month contract for WTI fell between the first and second quarters from more than $70 to less than $60 in trading on CME Group. At press time, it was roughly $65/bbl.

J.P. Morgan recently held its annual energy conference with nearly 1,200 attendees and meetings with 145 oil, gas, power, renewables and other energy companies.

Among the 145, 29 were E&Ps and 22 were oilfield service firms.

Patterson-UTI Energy reported that its four-rig decline in shale rigs at work between year-end 2024 and the end of June “were partially offset by steady demand increases observed in U.S. natural gas basins,” Jayaram reported.

Patterson’s overall count was 94 on Jan. 1; the count June 26 was 90.

Among its rigs at work at the end of June, 19 were making hole for operators in the Haynesville Shale and Appalachian Basin, according to J.P. Morgan, citing Enverus data.

Patterson has a 50% market share in Appalachia, “where a shortage of drilling rigs is prompting a pull of rigs from other basins,” Jayaram wrote.

Nabors Industries and Helmerich & Payne (HP) told conference attendees they’re seeing the same, “although they observed that rising gas activity did not fully counterbalance the drop in oil rigs for their respective Lower 48 drilling operations,” Jayaram wrote.

HP’s total Lower 48 shale rig count fell from 139 at year-end to 136 on June 26, according to the Enverus data. Among these, 90 were drilling in the Permian Basin; 18, in the Eagle Ford Shale.

Meanwhile, Nabors’ count was unchanged at 58, including 27 in the Permian and 13 in the Williston Basin.

Precision Drilling’s count was 28 at year-end and 26 on June 26 with most of them at work in the Midland Basin.

Ensign Energy’s count changed from 31 to 26, also mostly in the Midland.

Other shale-rig operators put six more to work, from 143 at year-end to 149 June 26, primarily in the Permian, Anadarko Basin (Midcontinent) and Haynesville.

The gas-focused shale rig count grew from 75 to 101 during the first half of the year, while the count in oil plays and gassy oil plays fell 23 from 407 to 384 rigs, according to J.P. Morgan’s analysis.

Among the identified plays, the Delaware Basin lost the most: 18 down to 140 rigs.

The Williston lost three, down to 30; the Powder River Basin, also three, down to 10; and the D-J Basin, two, down to seven.

The Midland’s 97-rig count was unchanged, though, according to the Enverus data.

Meanwhile, gaining rigs in the first half were the Haynesville, up 10 to 41; Eagle Ford, up three to 51; and the Midcontinent, up six to 46.

In addition to the Midland, showing no net change from year-end to the end of June 2025 are Appalachia (33) and the “other” category of unidentified plays (30).

Of the 485 rigs drilling the Lower 48 at June-end, private E&Ps had 211 of them making hole, up from 189 at year-end, according to the Enverus data.

Meanwhile, publicly held E&Ps cut 20 rigs loose in the first half, down to 194 from 214 at year-end.

Major E&Ps also dropped rigs, cutting from 92 to 80.

Among them, Exxon Mobil added three, though, totaling 37.

Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips cut 11, down to 23, and Chevron Corp. cut four, down to 11.

BP Plc’s Lower 48 unit BPX Energy had added three rigs in the first quarter to total 11 but quickly dropped the three in the second quarter after WTI fell to as low as $54/bbl. BPX operates in the Haynesville, Eagle Ford and Permian.

Private E&Ps picked up 22 net rigs during the six-month period, starting the year at 189 and ending June at 211.

Among them, Mewbourne Oil and Continental Resources had a combined 38 rigs at work at June-end, down from 48 at year-end, and all focused on oil plays.

Both operators are family-held: Mewbourne Oil is owned by the late Curtis Mewbourne’s family and Continental is owned by its founder Harold Hamm and his family.

Mewbourne dropped four rigs, down to 21, while Continental dropped six, down to 17.

Meanwhile, EnCap Investments-backed Paloma Resources went from zero rigs to five in the first half.

All five were added in June, according to the Enverus data.

Paloma sold its most recent E&P, Paloma Partners VI, which was focused entirely in the Haynesville, in February to hedge fund Citadel LLC.

Its current E&P, Paloma Partners VII, was formed in 2024 and was targeting acreage in the Delaware Basin.

Overall, nearly all of the 22-rig net increase among private E&Ps—from 189 to 211—versus the year-end 2024 count was derived from “other” E&Ps after a J.P. Morgan short-listing of 30 individual operators.

The other E&Ps’ count grew by 21 from 77 to 98.

Among non-major public E&Ps’ 194-rig count at June-end, Occidental Petroleum dropped two rigs from year-end, down to 23; EOG Resources dropped one, down to 23; Devon Energy dropped three, down to 19; and Diamondback Energy dropped six, down to 18.

The foursome represented the top rig operators in the category at June-end.

Meanwhile, counts among the next three—Coterra Energy (13), Permian Resources (12) and Expand Energy (9)—were unchanged.

Rounding out the top 10, Comstock Resources added two rigs to total seven; Civitas Resources added three to total seven; and APA Corp.’s Apache Energy dropped one, down to seven.

Nissa Darbonne is author of The American Shales and has been a journalist since 1984, beginning in the oil and gas fields of South Louisiana. She writes for Oil and Gas Investor and is actively involved in Hart's conference agendas.

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